The final POLITICO/Morning Consult poll prior to the midterm elections shows Republicans cutting into Democrats’ lead on the generic congressional ballot.
According to the poll, 43 percent of registered voters would vote for the Democratic congressional candidate in their district — only slightly more than the 40 percent who would vote for the Republican candidate. Eighteen percent of registered voters are undecided.
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Among those who say they are very likely to vote or have already voted, Democrats lead by 4 percentage points, 47 percent to 43 percent.
That’s a slightly smaller edge for Democrats than other public polls conducted in the immediate run-up to the election, but it fits an overall trend of modest tightening on the general ballot.
In an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted Oct. 29-Nov. 1, Democrats led by 7 points among registered voters and 8 points among likely voters, down from 11 points and 13 points in October, respectively.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted Nov. 1-3, found Democrats ahead by 6 points among registered voters and 7 points among likely voters, down from 7 points and 9 points, respectively, in October.
The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll was conducted in between those two surveys, from Oct. 30-Nov. 2. Democrats’ 3-point lead among all registered voters is down from an 8-point lead in the previous poll, which was conducted Oct. 25-30.
Despite the close overall result, the poll shows Democrats coalescing behind their party more than Republicans. Nearly nine-in-10 Democratic voters, 89 percent, say they will vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district. By comparison, just 77 percent of GOP voters say they will vote for the Republican candidate. Independents are split: 35 percent for the Democrat, 32 percent for the Republican and 33 percent undecided. (Republicans outnumber Democrats in the poll sample, 39 percent to 35 percent.)
Asked to predict the results of the midterms, voters are split: 35 percent say they think Democrats will win the House, and the same percentage picks Republicans to keep the majority. Three-in-10 voters, 30 percent, are undecided.
But more voters, 46 percent, expect Republicans to keep control of the Senate. Just 24 percent think Democrats will win the Senate.
More than four-in-10 voters, 43 percent, say they feel “angry” about the 2018 midterm elections. Tyler Sinclair, Morning Consult’s vice president, says an anger gap along partisan lines could influence the results on Tuesday night.
“Anger among Democratic voters is strong ahead of Election Day, which could enhance the party’s chances at the ballot box,” said Sinclair. “Notably, three in five (59 percent) Democrats say they feel angry going into the midterm elections, compared to 30 percent of Republicans who say the same.”
The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll surveyed 1,961 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Morning Consult is a nonpartisan media and technology company that provides data-driven research and insights on politics, policy and business strategy.