Election Day is poised to bring heavy rain, strong wind gusts and even potential tornadoes to various states across the U.S. where voters will be casting their ballots in competitive races. In the South, severe weather threats are forecast in northern Georgia, where Democrat Stacey Abrams is vying to become the nation’s first female African-American governor in a high-profile race against the state’s GOP Secretary of State Brian Kemp.
Further south, pop-up thunderstorms may strike the three south Florida congressional districts where Republicans are defending against well-funded challenges by Democrats. Florida voters will also be choosing between Democrat Andrew Gillum or Republican Ron DeSantis as their next governor and between Sen. Bill Nelson and Governor Rick Scott for the Senate seat.
There’s also a risk of flash floods between New York and northern New England, a region hosting multiple gubernatorial elections and some tight House contests, including the race between Democrat Antonio Delgado and Republican Rep. John Faso in New York’s Hudson Valley, and the Staten Island clash between GOP Rep. Dan Donovan and progressive challenger, Max Rose.
Pennsylvania is looking at heavy rain in the morning and early afternoon. Democrats hope to pick up some seats in the state’s new court-ordered congressional district map — particularly in the suburbs around Philadelphia. Severe rain is in the forecast in New Jersey, too, where Democrats are seeking to flip several Republican-held suburban districts while helping Sen. Bob Menendez avoid a humiliating upset.
CBS News elections and surveys director Anthony Salvanto points out that historically, while weather has depressed turnout in races that are not competitive, it has not been a factor in competitive races. That is, in a close race, people are willing to stand in line in the rain or wind.
Here’s a look at how weather may affect dozens of competitive races around the country:
- FL-18 Brian Mast (R, incumbent) v. Lauren Baer (D)
- FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart (R, incumbent) v. Mary Barzee Flores (D)
PM pop-up thunderstorms
- FL-26 Carlos Curbelo (R, incumbent) v. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)
PM pop-up thunderstorms
- FL-27 Donna Shalala (D) v. Maria Salazar (R) v. Mayra Joli (I)
PM pop-up thunderstorms
- GA-6 Karen C. Handel (R, incumbent) v. Lucy McBath (D)
Possible severe weather 8-11 a.m.
- GA-7 Rob Woodall (R, incumbent) v. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D)
Possible severe weather 8-10:30 a.m.
- IL-6 Peter J. Roskam (R, incumbent) v. Sean Casten (D)
- IL-14 Randy Hultgren (R, incumbent) v. Lauren Underwood (D)
- IA-1 Rod Blum (R, incumbent) v. Abby Finkenauer (D)
Early AM showers
- KY-6 Andy Barr (R, incumbent) v. Amy McGrath (D)
- ME-2 Bruce Poliquin (R, incumbent) v. Jared Golden (D)
AM showers; heavy rain after 4 p.m.
- MI-6 Fred Upton (R, incumbent) v. Matt Longjohn (D) v. Stephen J. Young (Taxpayers)
Rain, 6-10 a.m.
- MI-8 Mike Bishop (R, incumbent) v. Elissa Slotkin (D)
Heavy rain, 6-9 a.m.; PM showers
- MI-11 Haley Stevens (D) v. Lena Epstein (R)
Heavy rain, 6-10 a.m.; PM showers
- MN-2 Jason Lewis (R, incumbent) v. Angie Craig (D)
Rain until 10 a.m., midday flurries
- MN-3 Erik Paulsen (R, incumbent) v. Dean Phillips (D)
Rain until 9 a.m., changing to snow until 1 p.m., evening flurries
- MN-8 Pete Stauber (R) v. Joe Radinovich (D) v. Ray Skip Sandman (I)
All day snow in Duluth, north, up to 3″
- NH-1 Chris Pappas (D) v. Eddie Edwards (R) v. Dan Belforti (Lib.)
Heavy rain after 2 p.m.
- NJ-2 Jeff Van Drew (D) v. Seth Grossman (R)
AM showers, severe weather 2-5 p.m.
- NJ-3 Tom MacArthur (R, incumbent) v. Andy Kim (D) v. Lawrence Berlinski Jr. (Con.)
AM showers, severe weather 2-6 p.m.
- NJ-7 Leonard Lance (R, incumbent) v. Tom Malinowski (D)
Rain 10 a.m. to 2 p.m., possibly severe
- NJ-11 Mikie Sherrill (D) v. Jay Webber (R)
Rain 10 a.m. to 2 p.m.; possibly severe, 2-4 p.m.
- NY-11 Daniel Donovan (R, incumbent) v. Max Rose (D) v. Henry Bardel (Green)
10 a.m. to 3 p.m. showers, possible severe weather 3-5 p.m.
- NY-19 John Faso (R, incumbent) v. Antonio Delgado (D)
11 a.m. to 3 p.m. showers; strong thunderstorms 3-5 p.m.
- NY-22 Claudia Tenney (R, incumbent) v. Anthony Brindisi (D)
Heavy rain 9 a.m. to 1 p.m.
- NY-24 John Katko (R, incumbent) v. Dana Balter (D)
Heavy rain 9 a.m. to 12 p.m.
- NY-27 Chris Collins (R, incument) v. Nate McMurray (D) v. Larry Piegza (Reform)
- NC-2 George Holding (R, incumbent) v. Linda Coleman (D) v. Jeff Matemu (Lib.)
Severe weather 3-7 p.m.
- NC-9 Mark Harris (R) v. Dan McCready (D) v. Jeff Scott (Lib.)
Severe weather 1-6 p.m.
- NC-13 Ted Budd (R, incumbent) v. Kathy Manning (D)
Possible severe weather 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.
- OH-1 Steve Chabot (R, incumbent) v. Aftab Pureval (D) v. Dirk Kubala (Lib.)
- PA-1 Brian Fitzpatrick (R, incumbent) v. Scott Wallace (D)
Rain 10 a.m. to 1 p.m.; possible severe weather 1-3 p.m.
- PA-5 Mary Gay Scanlon (D) v. Pearl Kim (R)
Rain 9 a.m.; possible severe weather 1-3 p.m.
- PA-6 Chrissy Houlahan (D) v. Greg McCauley (R)
Rain 8 a.m. to 12: 30 p.m.; severe weather 12:30-2 p.m.
- PA-7 Susan Wild (D) v. Marty Nothstein (R) v. Tim Silfies (Lib.)
Rain 8 a.m. to 12: 30 p.m.; possible severe weather 12:30-2 p.m.
- PA-10 Scott Perry (R, incumbent) v. George Scott (D)
Rain 9-11 a.m.; possible severe weather 11 a.m. to 1 p.m.
- PA-14 Guy Reschenthaler (R) v. Bibiana Boerio (D)
Rain until 8 a.m.; off and on showers
- PA-17 Conor Lamb (D, incumbent) v. Keith Rothfus (R)
Rain until 9 a.m.; off and on showers
- SC-1 Katie Arrington (R) v. Joe Cunningham (D)
Pop-up storms, severe weather possible 6-9 p.m.
- VA-2 Scott Taylor (R, incumbent) v. Elaine Luria (D)
AM showers; severe weather 4-8 p.m.
- VA-5 Denver Riggleman (R) v. Leslie Cockburn (D)
AM showers; severe weather 10 a.m. to 3 p.m.; strongest in eastern half 1-3 p.m.
- VA-7 Dave Brat (R, incumbent) v. Abigail Spanberger (D) v. Joe Walton (Lib.)
AM showers; severe weather 12-4 p.m., strongest in eastern half, 1:30-4 p.m.
- VA-10 Barbara Comstock (R, incumbent) v. Jennifer Wexton (D)
AM showers; severe weather 10 a.m. to 12 p.m.
- WA-3 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R, incumbent) v. Carolyn Long (D)
All day showers
- WA-5 Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R, incumbent) v. Lisa Brown (D)
- WA-8 Kim Schrier (D) v. Dino Rossi (R)
All day rain and mountain snow
- WV-3 Carol Miller (R) v. Richard Ojeda (D)
Strong thunderstorms 6-10 a.m.
Weather could also play a role in the following Senate races:
- Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson (D, incumbent) v. Rick Scott (R)
Off-and-on thunderstorms in Panhandle, especially west of Tallahassee; PM pop-up thunderstorms from Miami to Palm Beach
- Indiana: Sen. Joe Donnelly (D, incumbent) v. Mike Braun (R)
AM rain in northeast Indiana; a few showers for the rest of the day
- Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D, incumbent) v. Matt Rosendale (R)
Snow showers all day in Billings, Great Falls West, 1″-4″
- New Jersey: Sen. Bob Menendez (D, incumbent) v. Bob Hugin (R)
AM rain in the whole state; severe weather likely in south Jersey 2-5 p.m. with severe weather possible overnight in the rest of the state
- North Dakota: Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D, incumbent) v. Kevin Cramer (R)
6-9 a.m. snow in Williston, Minot; 12-6 p.m. snow in eastern half, including Grand Forks and Fargo, 1″ to 3″ total
- Tennessee: Marsha Blackburn (R) v. Phil Bredesen (D)
Severe weather in Chattanooga, Bristol, Knoxville, 6-9 a.m., with severe weather overnight in the rest of the state
- Texas: Sen. Ted Cruz (R, incumbent) v. Beto O’Rourke (D)
Evening thunderstorms in east and north
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