September 26, 2021

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Gavin Newsom’s California Recall Election Odds Slashed Days Before Crucial Vote – Newsweek

2 min read

California Governor Gavin Newsom is on course to defeat the recall effort on September 14 after his odds of beating the attempt to remove him were slashed over the past week.

Bookmakers Betfair, which operates the world’s largest online betting exchange, now puts Newsom’s odds of being recalled at 1/18, while the odds that he remains in office now stand at 6/1.

This means Newsom is highly likely to defeat the recall and remain governor. A Betfair spokesperson told Newsweek that Newsom’s odds of victory have improved significantly over the last week. The odds of him surviving the recall were previously 2/9.

Voting in the California election is already underway as some voters have opted to use mail-in ballots.

There are 46 candidates running on the replacement ballot and hoping to become the state’s next governor if Newsom is removed from office.

Conservative radio host Larry Elder, who is running as a Republican, has emerged as the leading contender among the replacement candidates. However, if polls and betting odds are accurate, Elder will miss out on his opportunity to run the state.

Betfair’s odds appear to be borne out in recent polls, which show Newsom defeating the recall effort and Elder leading the field of replacement candidates. The governor cannot run as his own replacement and Democrats did not nominate a backup candidate.

In order for Newsom to be removed from office, 50 percent of voters will have to choose to recall him. If that threshold is not reached, the governor will remain in power.

A Spectrum News/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday showed that Newsom enjoyed 58 percent favorability among registered voters. Elder was viewed favorably by just 26 percent of voters in the same survey.

However, if 50 percent of votes are cast in favor of removing Newsom, the replacement ballot comes into play. Whichever candidate wins the most votes on that ballot will become the next governor.

Earlier in the contest, bookmakers’ odds suggested that Newsom was in real danger of being recalled, with Betfair considering his removal more likely than not on April 28.

However, the odds have moved in Newsom’s direction over the course of the campaign. By June 24, Betfair was giving odds of 1/10 that the governor would beat the recall.

Just three days remain in the recall election and many votes have already been cast in the state which is considered a Democratic stronghold. President Joe Biden is set to campaign for Newsom on Monday in the closing days of the campaign

Political betting is illegal in the U.S. but remains popular in the U.K., Europe and elsewhere.

Gavin Newsom Speaks Opposing the Recall Effort
California Gov. Gavin Newsom speaks during a “Vote No” get out the vote tour campaign stop at Mission Language and Vocational School on September 07, 2021 in San Francisco, California. Odds show Newsom is likely to survive the recall election.
Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

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